Western Sydney Wanderers 1-2 Melbourne City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒08:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.08
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
46%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.51
Over 2.5
55%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.46
No
46%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.61
2-3 Goals
38%
2.02
4-5 Goals
27%
2.63
6+ Goals
10%
6.26
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.73
1/2
6%
20.7
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
13.1
X/1
9%
7.67
X/2
14%
4.88
X/X
10%
6.05
2/1
4%
30.0
2/2
26%
2.55
2/X
4%
12.85
Value flag · 1/X at 13.1 — our 10% vs market 4.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
29%
+0.7pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
46%
Away Win
47%
-1.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
36%
+9.1pp
55%
Over 2.5
64%
-9.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
64%
-10.0pp
46%
BTTS No
36%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Western Sydney Wanderers EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 51%
-4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -14%
1.47/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.41
-14% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -11%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
291 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 401 · 82%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.0
19.0 Crosses 18.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Western Sydney Wanderers
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Melbourne City
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.40 xG 2.17
44% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
353 Passes 470
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 36
9 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.03.2024 Melbourne City Melbourne City 7-0 HT 4-0 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
12.01.2024 Melbourne City Melbourne City 0-1 HT 0-1 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
28.04.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 3-2 HT 0-1 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
15.01.2023 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 1-1 HT 1-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
11.02.2022 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 1-3 HT 0-2 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
09.01.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 3-3 HT 2-2 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Western Sydney Wanderers
1-2
AWAY Melbourne City
1.57 xG 0.88
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
476 Passes 358
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
44 Box Touches 23
29 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Western Sydney Wanderers vs Melbourne City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne City squeezed past Western Sydney Wanderers 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Melbourne City as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Western Sydney Wanderers had 56% of the ball to Melbourne City's 44%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 1.57 to 0.88 — the balance of chances actually favoured Western Sydney Wanderers.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Western Sydney Wanderers and 2.83 for Melbourne City.

What was the final score of Western Sydney Wanderers vs Melbourne City?

Western Sydney Wanderers 1-2 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Western Sydney Wanderers vs Melbourne City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Western Sydney Wanderers 30%, draw 24%, Melbourne City 46%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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AVUS More Australia - A-League
20 Apr 2024
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