Melbourne City 0-1 Western Sydney Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 12 Jan 2024

Melbourne City
0-1 HT 0-1
Western Sydney Wanderers
📅12/01/2024 · 🕒12:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
28%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.33
Over 2.5
57%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.53
No
45%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.51
2-3 Goals
35%
1.88
4-5 Goals
28%
2.83
6+ Goals
13%
8.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.95
1/2
5%
27.5
1/X
8%
13.3
X/1
17%
5.02
X/2
12%
6.33
X/X
15%
5.67
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
22.6
2/2
12%
4.05
2/X
4%
13.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.6 — our 10% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
+0.3pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.0pp
28%
Away Win
33%
-4.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
39%
+4.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
61%
-4.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
61%
-6.1pp
45%
BTTS No
39%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melbourne City v Western Sydney Wanderers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers EU Bookmakers 37%
+3% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -6%
1.64/1.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.61
+21% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
354 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 79%
29.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
19.2 Crosses 21.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1

Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne City
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.43 xG 1.21
53% Ball Possession 47%
21 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 4
444 Passes 383
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
38 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.04.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 3-2 HT 0-1 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
15.01.2023 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 1-1 HT 1-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
11.02.2022 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 1-3 HT 0-2 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
09.01.2022 Melbourne City Melbourne City 3-3 HT 2-2 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
26.03.2021 Melbourne City Melbourne City 4-1 HT 1-1 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
02.03.2021 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 0-2 HT 0-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS

Melbourne City 0-1 Western Sydney Wanderers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne City
0-1
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers
0.71 xG 2.01
64% Ball Possession 36%
11 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 4
503 Passes 267
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 26
34 Crosses 7
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Western Sydney Wanderers squeezed past Melbourne City 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Melbourne City at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Melbourne City had 64% of the ball to Western Sydney Wanderers's 36%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.71 to 2.01 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Western Sydney Wanderers's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Melbourne City and 1.33 for Western Sydney Wanderers.

What was the final score of Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers?

Melbourne City 0-1 Western Sydney Wanderers in the Australia - A-League on 12/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Melbourne City 44%, draw 28%, Western Sydney Wanderers 28%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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