Macarthur 3-3 Western United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 12 Jan 2024

Macarthur
3-3 HT 1-1
Western United
📅12/01/2024 · 🕒09:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Macarthur vs Western United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.27
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
28%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.61
Over 2.5
60%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.41
No
42%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.71
2-3 Goals
38%
2.01
4-5 Goals
29%
2.57
6+ Goals
12%
5.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
3.25
1/2
4%
23.85
1/X
8%
12.6
X/1
8%
5.78
X/2
10%
6.01
X/X
12%
6.04
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
23.0
2/2
14%
3.43
2/X
4%
12.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.0 — our 13% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
40%
+8.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.1pp
28%
Away Win
36%
-8.2pp
40%
Under 2.5
35%
+5.6pp
60%
Over 2.5
65%
-5.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
67%
-8.8pp
42%
BTTS No
33%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Macarthur v Western United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Western United EU Bookmakers 40%
+10% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -15%
1.86/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.70
+5% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +4%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
319 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 78%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.1
23.5 Crosses 19.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

Macarthur vs Western United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Western United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.50 xG 1.85
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
406 Passes 366
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 32
18 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.11.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 1-0 HT 0-0 Western United Western United AVUS
28.01.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 2-2 HT 0-0 Western United Western United AVUS
21.10.2022 Western United Western United 1-1 HT 0-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
19.04.2022 Western United Western United 2-0 HT 0-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
01.02.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 2-2 HT 0-1 Western United Western United AVUS
31.05.2021 Western United Western United 1-2 HT 0-2 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS

Macarthur 3-3 Western United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
3-3
AWAY Western United
2.11 xG 3.17
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 27
4 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 9
408 Passes 578
83% Pass Accuracy 90%
17 Box Touches 48
10 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Western United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macarthur and Western United couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Macarthur at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Macarthur had 43% of the ball to Western United's 57%, shots finished 11-27, expected goals 2.11 to 3.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Macarthur had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Macarthur and 1.33 for Western United.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Western United?

Macarthur 3-3 Western United in the Australia - A-League on 12/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Western United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Macarthur win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 48%, draw 24%, Western United 28%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Macarthur) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Macarthur) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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