Blau-Weiss Linz 3-2 Swarovski Tirol — Result, Stats & Model Review (Austria - Bundesliga, 4 May 2024)

Blau-Weiss Linz

3-2 HT 2-1

Swarovski Tirol

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3

Top 2 Score Predictions

1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗

Austria - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Blau-Weiss Linz vs Swarovski Tirol Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions

Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend

⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.

Match Result

Home

42%

2.05

Draw

31%

3.11

Away

27%

3.34

Under/Over 2.5

Under 2.5

68%

1.67

Over 2.5

32%

2.1

Both Teams to Score

Yes

45%

1.88

55%

1.82

Total Goals

0-1 Goal EV+ ✗

36%

2.74

2-3 Goals

43%

1.77

4-5 Goals

12%

4.27

6+ Goals

21.25

Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 36% vs market 30.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.

Half Time / Full Time

1/1

16%

2.97

1/2

34.5

1/X

10%

13.1

X/1

20%

4.59

X/2

11%

7.0

X/X

12%

4.0

2/1

28.5

2/2

12%

5.42

2/X

13.65

PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine

Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline

✋

Decision

No Bet — Skip This Match

The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.

Model vs Market — where we differ

iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers

42%

Home Win

45%

-2.9pp

31%

Draw

29%

+2.4pp

27%

Away Win

26%

+0.5pp

68%

Under 2.5

56%

+11.9pp

32%

Over 2.5

44%

-11.9pp

45%

BTTS Yes

49%

-4.6pp

55%

BTTS No

51%

+4.6pp

gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Blau-Weiss Linz v Swarovski Tirol — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine

iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals

HOME Blau-Weiss Linz EU Bookmakers 49%

Head to Head

AWAY Swarovski Tirol EU Bookmakers 30%

-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +8%

0.93/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.61

+5% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -7%

54% Ball Possession 46%

14 Total Shots 9

4 Shots on Target 3

6 Corners 4

369 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 71%

22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2

15.6 Crosses 16.0

1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Blau-Weiss Linz vs Swarovski Tirol Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings

Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings

HOME Blau-Weiss Linz

2W-1D-3L

AWAY Swarovski Tirol

1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83

1.31 xG 1.24

47% Ball Possession 53%

14 Total Shots 9

5 Shots on Target 4

4 Corners 5

308 Passes 325

74% Pass Accuracy 75%

27 Box Touches 16

15 Crosses 14

2 Yellow Cards 1

The Meetings

13.04.2024 Swarovski Tirol

2-1 HT 1-0

Blau-Weiss Linz AVU

10.12.2023 Blau-Weiss Linz

1-2 HT 1-1

Swarovski Tirol AVU

02.09.2023 Swarovski Tirol

2-4 HT 1-2

Blau-Weiss Linz AVU

01.12.2022 Blau-Weiss Linz

4-3 HT 1-1

Swarovski Tirol HAZ

29.03.2019 Blau-Weiss Linz

1-1 HT 1-1

Swarovski Tirol AU2

24.08.2018 Swarovski Tirol

1-0 HT 0-0

Blau-Weiss Linz AU2

Blau-Weiss Linz 3-2 Swarovski Tirol — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result

Real recorded figures from this match

HOME Blau-Weiss Linz

3-2

AWAY Swarovski Tirol

1.24 xG 1.29

45% Ball Possession 55%

12 Total Shots 11

6 Shots on Target 3

7 Corners 4

227 Passes 296

74% Pass Accuracy 77%

19 Box Touches 27

20 Crosses 22

4 Yellow Cards 4

POST-MATCH Blau-Weiss Linz vs Swarovski Tirol

iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Blau-Weiss Linz edged past Swarovski Tirol 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Blau-Weiss Linz as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Blau-Weiss Linz had 45% of the ball to Swarovski Tirol's 55%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.24 to 1.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swarovski Tirol led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Blau-Weiss Linz and 1.83 for Swarovski Tirol.

What was the final score of Blau-Weiss Linz vs Swarovski Tirol?

Blau-Weiss Linz 3-2 Swarovski Tirol in the Austria - Bundesliga on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Blau-Weiss Linz vs Swarovski Tirol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Blau-Weiss Linz win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Blau-Weiss Linz 42%, draw 31%, Swarovski Tirol 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Blau-Weiss Linz) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Blau-Weiss Linz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No

Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →

Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →

AVU More Austria - Bundesliga

4 May 2024

18:00 Rheindorf Altach vs Wolfsberger AC Analysis →