Naftan Novopolotsk 0-2 Gomel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
2.99
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
47%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.44
2-3 Goals
35%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.46
6+ Goals
9%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.44 — our 32% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
18%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
30%
-3.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
47%
Away Win
44%
+3.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.9pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Gomel EU Bookmakers 48%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -5%
1.87/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.22
+54% / +65% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -16%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
292 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gomel
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.08.2023 Gomel Gomel 3-2 HT 1-1 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
01.04.2023 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 1-1 HT 1-0 Gomel Gomel BLR
15.11.2020 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 1-4 HT 1-2 Gomel Gomel BLR1
18.04.2020 Gomel Gomel 0-0 HT 0-0 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR1
04.10.2015 Gomel Gomel 1-4 HT 0-1 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk BLR
05.06.2015 Naftan Novopolotsk Naftan Novopolotsk 3-1 HT 2-1 Gomel Gomel BLR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naftan Novopolotsk
0-2
AWAY Gomel
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 8
0 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Naftan Novopolotsk vs Gomel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gomel saw off Naftan Novopolotsk 2-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gomel as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Naftan Novopolotsk had 51% of the ball to Gomel's 49%, shots finished 14-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Naftan Novopolotsk and 1.67 for Gomel.

What was the final score of Naftan Novopolotsk vs Gomel?

Naftan Novopolotsk 0-2 Gomel in the Belarus - Premier League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naftan Novopolotsk vs Gomel?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gomel win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Naftan Novopolotsk 26%, draw 27%, Gomel 47%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gomel), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gomel) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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