ATK Mohun Bagan 1-3 Mumbai City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — India - Super League, 4 May 2024

ATK Mohun Bagan
1-3 HT 1-0
Mumbai City
📅04/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
India - Super League – 2025/2026

ATK Mohun Bagan vs Mumbai City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.33
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
39%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.63
No
54%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.62
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.33
6+ Goals
8%
12.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.62 — our 27% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
39%
-7.3pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.2pp
39%
Away Win
34%
+4.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
57%
-10.9pp
54%
BTTS No
43%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

ATK Mohun Bagan v Mumbai City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ATK Mohun Bagan EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Mumbai City EU Bookmakers 38%
+11% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -15%
1.14/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.27
-2% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +0%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
294 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 78%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
21.5 Crosses 19.6
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.3

ATK Mohun Bagan vs Mumbai City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ATK Mohun Bagan
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Mumbai City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.00 xG 1.47
47% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
277 Passes 326
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
15.04.2024 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan 2-1 HT 1-0 Mumbai City Mumbai City HİNSL
20.12.2023 Mumbai City Mumbai City 2-1 HT 1-1 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan HİNSL
14.01.2023 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan 0-1 HT 0-1 Mumbai City Mumbai City HİNSL
06.11.2022 Mumbai City Mumbai City 2-2 HT 1-0 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan HİNSL
03.02.2022 Mumbai City Mumbai City 1-1 HT 1-1 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan HİNSL
01.12.2021 ATK Mohun Bagan ATK Mohun Bagan 1-5 HT 0-3 Mumbai City Mumbai City HİNSL

ATK Mohun Bagan 1-3 Mumbai City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ATK Mohun Bagan
1-3
AWAY Mumbai City
1.05 xG 1.96
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
191 Passes 292
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 35
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH ATK Mohun Bagan vs Mumbai City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mumbai City got the better of ATK Mohun Bagan 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 30% / 39% — and on the day Mumbai City made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, ATK Mohun Bagan had 43% of the ball to Mumbai City's 57%, shots finished 8-20, expected goals 1.05 to 1.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mumbai City led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for ATK Mohun Bagan and 2.00 for Mumbai City.

What was the final score of ATK Mohun Bagan vs Mumbai City?

ATK Mohun Bagan 1-3 Mumbai City in the India - Super League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ATK Mohun Bagan vs Mumbai City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mumbai City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split ATK Mohun Bagan 32%, draw 30%, Mumbai City 39%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mumbai City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mumbai City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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