Excelsior Maassluis 2-1 AFC Amsterdamsche — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Tweede Divisie, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
2.67
Draw
33%
3.72
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.53
No
41%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
19%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
18%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
34%
-7.9pp
33%
Draw
23%
+9.6pp
42%
Away Win
43%
-1.6pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.6pp
59%
BTTS Yes
61%
-2.2pp
41%
BTTS No
39%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior Maassluis EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Amsterdamsche EU Bookmakers 48%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -37% / -37%
0.71/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.50/1.99
-43% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -72% / -43%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
318 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior Maassluis
0W-1D-1L
AWAY AFC Amsterdamsche
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.46 xG 2.28
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 10
0 Corners 5
196 Passes 331
68% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 32
3 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 0
25.11.2023 AFC Amsterdamsche AFC Amsterdamsche 2-2 HT 2-2 Excelsior Maassluis Excelsior Maassluis HOLTW
13.10.2018 AFC Amsterdamsche AFC Amsterdamsche 4-1 HT 0-1 Excelsior Maassluis Excelsior Maassluis HOLTW
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior Maassluis
2-1
AWAY AFC Amsterdamsche
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Excelsior Maassluis vs AFC Amsterdamsche
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior Maassluis squeezed past AFC Amsterdamsche 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was AFC Amsterdamsche at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Excelsior Maassluis had 40% of the ball to AFC Amsterdamsche's 60%, shots finished 11-10.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, AFC Amsterdamsche led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Excelsior Maassluis and 3.00 for AFC Amsterdamsche.

What was the final score of Excelsior Maassluis vs AFC Amsterdamsche?

Excelsior Maassluis 2-1 AFC Amsterdamsche in the Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior Maassluis vs AFC Amsterdamsche?

Before kick-off our model rated an AFC Amsterdamsche win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Excelsior Maassluis 26%, draw 33%, AFC Amsterdamsche 42%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AFC Amsterdamsche) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AFC Amsterdamsche) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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