FK Orenburg 2-1 Krylya Sovetov — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 4 May 2024

FK Orenburg
2-1 HT 1-0
Krylya Sovetov
📅04/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Russia - Premier League – 2023/2024

FK Orenburg vs Krylya Sovetov Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
33%
3.54
Away
25%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.12
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
3.05
6+ Goals
11%
9.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
3.05
1/2
4%
28.5
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
13.1
X/1
9%
5.06
X/2
9%
6.31
X/X
17%
5.29
2/1
4%
24.0
2/2
12%
4.15
2/X
7%
13.25
Value flag · 1/X at 13.1 — our 9% vs market 4.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.4pp
33%
Draw
25%
+8.7pp
25%
Away Win
32%
-7.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.7pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

FK Orenburg v Krylya Sovetov — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Krylya Sovetov EU Bookmakers 36%
+8% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
1.80/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.37
+12% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +1%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
341 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 78%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
22.9 Crosses 15.8
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.0

FK Orenburg vs Krylya Sovetov Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Krylya Sovetov
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.14 xG 1.81
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
308 Passes 290
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 29
19 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 1-1 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
02.04.2023 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 1-1 HT 1-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
16.07.2022 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-4 HT 1-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
29.11.2020 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-1 HT 1-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS1
22.08.2020 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 0-1 HT 0-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS1
28.02.2020 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 1-1 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS

FK Orenburg 2-1 Krylya Sovetov — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
2-1
AWAY Krylya Sovetov
2.18 xG 1.96
45% Ball Possession 55%
17 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 13
275 Passes 339
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 40
17 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs Krylya Sovetov
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Orenburg edged past Krylya Sovetov 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had FK Orenburg as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 45% of the ball to Krylya Sovetov's 55%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 2.18 to 1.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Orenburg had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FK Orenburg and 1.33 for Krylya Sovetov.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs Krylya Sovetov?

FK Orenburg 2-1 Krylya Sovetov in the Russia - Premier League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs Krylya Sovetov?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Orenburg win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 42%, draw 33%, Krylya Sovetov 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FK Orenburg), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FK Orenburg) ✓ Over 2.5
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