Krasnodar 0-1 FC Akhmat Grozny — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.35
2-3 Goals
45%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.53
6+ Goals
10%
13.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 26% vs market 24.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.2
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.55
X/1
23%
3.76
X/2
8%
8.83
X/X
12%
5.51
2/1
8%
22.7
2/2
11%
7.0
2/X
7%
17.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-8.2pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.0pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+5.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.4pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 25%
+5% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +9%
1.81/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.62
+11% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +12%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
364 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 73%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
14.4 Crosses 13.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krasnodar
2W-3D-1L
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.23 xG 1.31
63% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
414 Passes 215
81% Pass Accuracy 68%
26 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.09.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-1 HT 1-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
03.06.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 2-2 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
15.03.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-3 HT 0-1 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUSK
15.10.2022 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-3 HT 1-2 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
21.05.2022 Krasnodar Krasnodar 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
18.09.2021 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-2 HT 0-2 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krasnodar
0-1
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny
72% Ball Possession 28%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 1
567 Passes 151
82% Pass Accuracy 59%
POST-MATCH Krasnodar vs FC Akhmat Grozny
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Akhmat Grozny nicked a narrow win over Krasnodar 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Krasnodar at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Krasnodar had 72% of the ball to FC Akhmat Grozny's 28%, shots finished 15-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Krasnodar had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Krasnodar and 1.17 for FC Akhmat Grozny.

What was the final score of Krasnodar vs FC Akhmat Grozny?

Krasnodar 0-1 FC Akhmat Grozny in the Russia - Premier League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krasnodar vs FC Akhmat Grozny?

Before kick-off our model rated a Krasnodar win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Krasnodar 48%, draw 26%, FC Akhmat Grozny 27%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Krasnodar), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Krasnodar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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