Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3-2 Vorskla Poltava — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ukraine - Premier League, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
36%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.74
Over 2.5
42%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+0.9pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.1pp
36%
Away Win
41%
-4.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
54%
+4.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
46%
-4.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.3pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Metalist 1925 Kharkiv EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Vorskla Poltava EU Bookmakers 45%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
0.97/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/0.99
-3% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +5%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
207 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Vorskla Poltava
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.10.2023 Vorskla Poltava Vorskla Poltava 2-2 HT 0-1 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv UKR
27.09.2023 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0-3 HT 0-2 Vorskla Poltava Vorskla Poltava UKRK
18.03.2023 Vorskla Poltava Vorskla Poltava 0-0 HT 0-0 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv UKR
03.09.2022 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3-2 HT 0-1 Vorskla Poltava Vorskla Poltava UKR
20.08.2021 Vorskla Poltava Vorskla Poltava 2-0 HT 1-0 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv UKR
POST-MATCH Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv edged past Vorskla Poltava 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (33% / 31% / 36%) promised a tight game; Metalist 1925 Kharkiv found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Vorskla Poltava led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Metalist 1925 Kharkiv and 1.80 for Vorskla Poltava.

What was the final score of Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava?

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3-2 Vorskla Poltava in the Ukraine - Premier League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Vorskla Poltava?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vorskla Poltava win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 33%, draw 31%, Vorskla Poltava 36%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vorskla Poltava) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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