Nacional de Football 4-2 Racing Club Montevideo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 4 May 2024

Nacional de Football
4-2 HT 2-1
Racing Club Montevideo
📅04/05/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Uruguay - Premier League – 2024

Nacional de Football vs Racing Club Montevideo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.61
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
27%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.75
Over 2.5
53%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.99
No
50%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
58%
-9.9pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.0pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+8.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
53%
-6.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
47%
+6.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.2pp
50%
BTTS No
54%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nacional de Football v Racing Club Montevideo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.93/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.48
+9% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
355 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.3

Nacional de Football vs Racing Club Montevideo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional de Football
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
06.10.2023 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 1-2 HT 1-1 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
10.07.2023 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 2-2 HT 1-1 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU
27.02.2023 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 3-1 HT 2-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
23.09.2019 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 3-0 HT 1-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
31.05.2018 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 5-0 HT 3-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
18.04.2015 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 2-4 HT 1-2 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football URU

Nacional de Football 4-2 Racing Club Montevideo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional de Football
4-2
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Nacional de Football vs Racing Club Montevideo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional de Football saw off Racing Club Montevideo 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Nacional de Football as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Nacional de Football had 56% of the ball to Racing Club Montevideo's 44%, shots finished 15-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional de Football had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Nacional de Football and 1.00 for Racing Club Montevideo.

What was the final score of Nacional de Football vs Racing Club Montevideo?

Nacional de Football 4-2 Racing Club Montevideo in the Uruguay - Premier League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional de Football vs Racing Club Montevideo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional de Football win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Nacional de Football 48%, draw 25%, Racing Club Montevideo 27%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional de Football), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nacional de Football) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
URU More Uruguay - Premier League
4 May 2024
16:00 Boston River vs Miramar Misiones Analysis →
21:00 Montevideo Wanderers vs Progreso Analysis →