Central Valley Fuego 1-3 Charlotte Independence — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.99
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
36%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
19%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
30%
+5.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.9pp
36%
Away Win
44%
-8.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Central Valley Fuego EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Charlotte Independence EU Bookmakers 48%
-26% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.22/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.43
-38% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +20%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
312 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 78%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
18.9 Crosses 15.3
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Central Valley Fuego
1W-0D-4L
AWAY Charlotte Independence
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
1.17 xG 1.34
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
355 Passes 381
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
20.08.2023 Central Valley Fuego Central Valley Fuego 1-2 HT 0-1 Charlotte Independence Charlotte Independence USL1
23.07.2023 Charlotte Independence Charlotte Independence 1-2 HT 1-2 Central Valley Fuego Central Valley Fuego USL1
22.04.2023 Charlotte Independence Charlotte Independence 1-0 HT 1-0 Central Valley Fuego Central Valley Fuego USL1
18.09.2022 Central Valley Fuego Central Valley Fuego 0-3 HT 0-2 Charlotte Independence Charlotte Independence USL1
30.07.2022 Charlotte Independence Charlotte Independence 4-0 HT 2-0 Central Valley Fuego Central Valley Fuego USL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Central Valley Fuego
1-3
AWAY Charlotte Independence
1.57 xG 1.91
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 1
371 Passes 368
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Central Valley Fuego vs Charlotte Independence
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Charlotte Independence beat Central Valley Fuego 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 29% / 36% — and on the day Charlotte Independence made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Central Valley Fuego had 51% of the ball to Charlotte Independence's 49%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.57 to 1.91.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Charlotte Independence led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Central Valley Fuego and 2.20 for Charlotte Independence.

What was the final score of Central Valley Fuego vs Charlotte Independence?

Central Valley Fuego 1-3 Charlotte Independence in the USA - USL League 1 on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Central Valley Fuego vs Charlotte Independence?

Before kick-off our model rated an Charlotte Independence win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Central Valley Fuego 35%, draw 29%, Charlotte Independence 36%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Charlotte Independence), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Charlotte Independence) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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