Neftçi PFK 2-2 Kapaz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.72
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.95
Over 2.5
45%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-6.9pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.4pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.9pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapaz EU Bookmakers 24%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
1.78/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.72
+15% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
323 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neftçi PFK
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Kapaz
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
05.03.2025 Kapaz Kapaz 1-0 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
28.02.2025 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-0 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERK
05.02.2025 Kapaz Kapaz 0-2 HT 0-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERK
15.12.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-1 HT 2-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
04.10.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 4-3 HT 3-2 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
09.03.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 3-3 HT 1-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
POST-MATCH Neftçi PFK vs Kapaz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK and Kapaz couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Neftçi PFK at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftçi PFK had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Neftçi PFK and 1.50 for Kapaz.

What was the final score of Neftçi PFK vs Kapaz?

Neftçi PFK 2-2 Kapaz in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neftçi PFK vs Kapaz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Neftçi PFK 47%, draw 27%, Kapaz 25%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
4 May 2025
17:00 Karabağ vs Sumqayıt Analysis →