Atletico Goianiense 1-0 Novorizontino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.67
Draw
28%
2.88
Away
31%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.45
Over 2.5
38%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.13
No
60%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.05
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
5.69
6+ Goals
7%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
34%
+7.0pp
28%
Draw
31%
-2.4pp
31%
Away Win
36%
-4.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
65%
-2.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
35%
+2.9pp
40%
BTTS Yes
43%
-3.2pp
60%
BTTS No
57%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Goianiense EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 39%
+6% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -18%
1.26/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/0.85
+55% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +23%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
267 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 80%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
23.5 Crosses 25.8
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Goianiense
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Novorizontino
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.90 xG 1.77
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
362 Passes 245
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
13 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 3
02.11.2023 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 2-2 HT 1-2 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
08.07.2023 Novorizontino Novorizontino 2-2 HT 1-0 Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Goianiense
1-0
AWAY Novorizontino
0.54 xG 0.68
28% Ball Possession 72%
11 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
121 Passes 438
61% Pass Accuracy 87%
8 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 28
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Goianiense squeezed past Novorizontino 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Goianiense as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Atletico Goianiense had 28% of the ball to Novorizontino's 72%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.54 to 0.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Atletico Goianiense and 2.00 for Novorizontino.

What was the final score of Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino?

Atletico Goianiense 1-0 Novorizontino in the Brazil - Serie B on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Goianiense vs Novorizontino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Goianiense win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Atletico Goianiense 41%, draw 28%, Novorizontino 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Goianiense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Goianiense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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