Semen Padang 2-1 Madura United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Indonesia League 1, 4 May 2025

Semen Padang
2-1 HT 0-0
Madura United
📅04/05/2025 · 🕒11:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Indonesia League 1 – 2024/2025

Semen Padang vs Madura United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
26%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.86
Over 2.5
43%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
5%
X/X
15%
2/1
12%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.8pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.7pp
26%
Away Win
28%
-1.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
50%
+6.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
50%
-6.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.2pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Semen Padang v Madura United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Semen Padang EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Madura United EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +20%
2.01/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/0.89
+42% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +47%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
334 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 5.0

Semen Padang vs Madura United Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Semen Padang
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Madura United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
The Meetings
10.12.2024 Madura United Madura United 0-1 HT 0-0 Semen Padang Semen Padang ENDL1
20.10.2019 Semen Padang Semen Padang 1-2 HT 0-1 Madura United Madura United ENDL1
POST-MATCH Semen Padang vs Madura United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Semen Padang squeezed past Madura United 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Semen Padang as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Semen Padang and 1.00 for Madura United.

What was the final score of Semen Padang vs Madura United?

Semen Padang 2-1 Madura United in the Indonesia League 1 on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Semen Padang vs Madura United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Semen Padang win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Semen Padang 45%, draw 29%, Madura United 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Semen Padang) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Semen Padang) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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