Smiltene 4-2 Progress / AFA Olaine — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
42%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.15
Over 2.5
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.6
No
43%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
14%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
20%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
42%
-10.6pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.1pp
42%
Away Win
34%
+7.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+1.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-1.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.6pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smiltene EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Progress / AFA Olaine EU Bookmakers 38%
-41% / -41% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
0.42/2.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.36
-75% / -64% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +8%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
244 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smiltene
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Progress / AFA Olaine
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.67
21.09.2024 Smiltene Smiltene 0-4 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine LET1
20.08.2023 Smiltene Smiltene 1-3 HT 1-1 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine LET1
23.04.2023 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine 4-0 HT 2-0 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
POST-MATCH Smiltene vs Progress / AFA Olaine
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Smiltene got the better of Progress / AFA Olaine 4-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Progress / AFA Olaine at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Progress / AFA Olaine led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Smiltene and 3.67 for Progress / AFA Olaine.

What was the final score of Smiltene vs Progress / AFA Olaine?

Smiltene 4-2 Progress / AFA Olaine in the Latvia - 1st Division on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smiltene vs Progress / AFA Olaine?

Before kick-off our model rated an Progress / AFA Olaine win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Smiltene 31%, draw 27%, Progress / AFA Olaine 42%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Progress / AFA Olaine) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Progress / AFA Olaine) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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