Smiltene 0-4 Progress / AFA Olaine — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 21 Sep 2024

Smiltene
0-4
Progress / AFA Olaine
📅21/09/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Latvia - 1st Division – 2024

Smiltene vs Progress / AFA Olaine Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.57
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
47%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
2.51
Over 2.5
67%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.43
No
40%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
35%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
13%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
21%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
35%
-5.2pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.8pp
47%
Away Win
41%
+6.0pp
33%
Under 2.5
36%
-3.3pp
67%
Over 2.5
64%
+3.3pp
60%
BTTS Yes
66%
-5.4pp
40%
BTTS No
34%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Smiltene v Progress / AFA Olaine — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smiltene EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Progress / AFA Olaine EU Bookmakers 45%
-35% / -35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -48% / -48%
0.22/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/3.00
-85% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / -62%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
247 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Smiltene vs Progress / AFA Olaine Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smiltene
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Progress / AFA Olaine
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
The Meetings
20.08.2023 Smiltene Smiltene 1-3 HT 1-1 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine LET1
23.04.2023 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine 4-0 HT 2-0 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
POST-MATCH Smiltene vs Progress / AFA Olaine
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progress / AFA Olaine swept aside Smiltene 4-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Progress / AFA Olaine as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (67%) landed while both teams to score (60%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Progress / AFA Olaine led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Smiltene and 3.50 for Progress / AFA Olaine.

What was the final score of Smiltene vs Progress / AFA Olaine?

Smiltene 0-4 Progress / AFA Olaine in the Latvia - 1st Division on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smiltene vs Progress / AFA Olaine?

Before kick-off our model rated an Progress / AFA Olaine win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Smiltene 30%, draw 23%, Progress / AFA Olaine 47%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Progress / AFA Olaine), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Progress / AFA Olaine) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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