Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 HNK Gorica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 4 Jul 2025

📅04/07/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.3
Draw
28%
4.95
Away
24%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
Over 2.5
48%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
12%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
72%
-23.9pp
28%
Draw
17%
+10.9pp
24%
Away Win
11%
+13.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.1pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shakhtar Donetsk EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 14%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-70% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
487 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shakhtar Donetsk
1-0
AWAY HNK Gorica
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Shakhtar Donetsk vs HNK Gorica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shakhtar Donetsk nicked a narrow win over HNK Gorica 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Shakhtar Donetsk as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Shakhtar Donetsk had 65% of the ball to HNK Gorica's 35%, shots finished 16-7.

What was the final score of Shakhtar Donetsk vs HNK Gorica?

Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 HNK Gorica in the Friendlies on 04/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shakhtar Donetsk vs HNK Gorica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shakhtar Donetsk win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Shakhtar Donetsk 48%, draw 28%, HNK Gorica 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shakhtar Donetsk), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Shakhtar Donetsk) ✓ Under 2.5
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