Kalmar 1-4 Hammarby — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.99
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.23
2-3 Goals
42%
1.86
4-5 Goals
22%
3.01
6+ Goals
11%
9.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.78
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
23.15
1/X
10%
12.5
X/1
16%
7.28
X/2
19%
4.94
X/X
5%
5.05
2/1
8%
32.0
2/2
11%
2.79
2/X
8%
12.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.15 — our 12% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
29%
+5.6pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.5pp
42%
Away Win
45%
-3.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.8pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kalmar EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Hammarby EU Bookmakers 49%
-10% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -24%
1.05/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.27
-44% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -25%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
293 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 389 · 80%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
17.4 Crosses 23.3
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kalmar
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Hammarby
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.11 xG 1.64
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
473 Passes 434
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 0
31.03.2024 Hammarby Hammarby 3-1 HT 2-1 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
20.08.2023 Kalmar Kalmar 0-0 HT 0-0 Hammarby Hammarby İSÇ
16.07.2023 Hammarby Hammarby 3-1 HT 2-0 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
30.10.2022 Hammarby Hammarby 4-2 HT 1-0 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
08.05.2022 Kalmar Kalmar 2-0 HT 2-0 Hammarby Hammarby İSÇ
04.12.2021 Hammarby Hammarby 5-3 HT 3-1 Kalmar Kalmar İSÇ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kalmar
1-4
AWAY Hammarby
1.22 xG 2.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
333 Passes 545
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
19 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 18
POST-MATCH Kalmar vs Hammarby
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hammarby cruised past Kalmar 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Hammarby as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Kalmar had 40% of the ball to Hammarby's 60%, shots finished 12-20, expected goals 1.22 to 2.00.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hammarby led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Kalmar and 2.50 for Hammarby.

What was the final score of Kalmar vs Hammarby?

Kalmar 1-4 Hammarby in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kalmar vs Hammarby?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hammarby win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Kalmar 35%, draw 23%, Hammarby 42%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hammarby), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hammarby) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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