IFK Varnamo 2-4 IK Sirius — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 4 Aug 2024

IFK Varnamo
2-4 HT 0-2
IK Sirius
📅04/08/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Sweden - Allsvenskan – 2024

IFK Varnamo vs IK Sirius Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.91
Over 2.5
53%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.5
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.41
6+ Goals
13%
12.8
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.41 — our 25% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.31
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
30.5
1/X
9%
12.75
X/1
19%
5.2
X/2
16%
6.09
X/X
7%
4.67
2/1
5%
26.5
2/2
13%
4.13
2/X
8%
12.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 30.5 — our 7% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
+0.2pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.4pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+2.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.1pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

IFK Varnamo v IK Sirius — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Varnamo EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY IK Sirius EU Bookmakers 37%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +11%
1.25/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.17
-29% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +25%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 80%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
16.9 Crosses 18.8
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.6

IFK Varnamo vs IK Sirius Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Varnamo
2W-1D-3L
AWAY IK Sirius
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.90 xG 1.47
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
385 Passes 395
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.04.2024 IK Sirius IK Sirius 0-1 HT 0-1 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
25.09.2023 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 0-1 HT 0-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
04.06.2023 IK Sirius IK Sirius 2-0 HT 2-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
10.09.2022 IK Sirius IK Sirius 2-3 HT 0-2 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
11.04.2022 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 0-0 HT 0-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
16.09.2016 IK Sirius IK Sirius 2-0 HT 1-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ2

IFK Varnamo 2-4 IK Sirius — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IFK Varnamo
2-4
AWAY IK Sirius
1.62 xG 2.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
399 Passes 367
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH IFK Varnamo vs IK Sirius
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IK Sirius saw off IFK Varnamo 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 25% / 35%) promised a tight game; IK Sirius found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, IFK Varnamo had 52% of the ball to IK Sirius's 48%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 1.62 to 2.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, IK Sirius led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.17 for IK Sirius.

What was the final score of IFK Varnamo vs IK Sirius?

IFK Varnamo 2-4 IK Sirius in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Varnamo vs IK Sirius?

Before kick-off our model rated a IFK Varnamo win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split IFK Varnamo 40%, draw 25%, IK Sirius 35%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (IFK Varnamo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (IFK Varnamo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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