IK Sirius 0-1 IFK Varnamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 20 Apr 2024

IK Sirius
0-1 HT 0-1
IFK Varnamo
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Sweden - Allsvenskan – 2024

IK Sirius vs IFK Varnamo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.61
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
31%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.1
Over 2.5
61%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.73
No
42%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
4.12
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
30%
3.05
6+ Goals
11%
9.69
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.05 — our 30% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.02
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.25
X/1
10%
3.93
X/2
13%
10.45
X/X
8%
5.81
2/1
7%
21.45
2/2
12%
7.79
2/X
7%
15.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
58%
-10.6pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.8pp
30%
Away Win
19%
+11.3pp
39%
Under 2.5
44%
-5.1pp
61%
Over 2.5
56%
+5.1pp
58%
BTTS Yes
54%
+3.9pp
42%
BTTS No
46%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

IK Sirius v IFK Varnamo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IK Sirius EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Varnamo EU Bookmakers 22%
+10% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +26%
2.34/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.55
+40% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +33%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
434 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 76%
33.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
20.4 Crosses 14.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8

IK Sirius vs IFK Varnamo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IK Sirius
3W-2D-1L
AWAY IFK Varnamo
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.58 xG 0.93
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
359 Passes 396
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
25.09.2023 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 0-1 HT 0-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
04.06.2023 IK Sirius IK Sirius 2-0 HT 2-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
10.09.2022 IK Sirius IK Sirius 2-3 HT 0-2 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ
11.04.2022 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 0-0 HT 0-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
16.09.2016 IK Sirius IK Sirius 2-0 HT 1-0 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo İSÇ2
24.04.2016 IFK Varnamo IFK Varnamo 0-0 HT 0-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ2

IK Sirius 0-1 IFK Varnamo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IK Sirius
0-1
AWAY IFK Varnamo
1.01 xG 0.79
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
538 Passes 344
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 11
28 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH IK Sirius vs IFK Varnamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

IFK Varnamo squeezed past IK Sirius 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was IK Sirius at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, IK Sirius had 60% of the ball to IFK Varnamo's 40%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 1.01 to 0.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, IK Sirius had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for IK Sirius and 0.50 for IFK Varnamo.

What was the final score of IK Sirius vs IFK Varnamo?

IK Sirius 0-1 IFK Varnamo in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IK Sirius vs IFK Varnamo?

Before kick-off our model rated a IK Sirius win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split IK Sirius 47%, draw 22%, IFK Varnamo 30%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (IK Sirius) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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