Avellino 3-1 Juve Stabia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.38
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
26%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.73
No
58%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.14
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.73
6+ Goals
8%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 34% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.56
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
18%
5.27
X/2
9%
5.73
X/X
12%
4.43
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
12%
3.99
2/X
6%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
39%
+11.2pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.0pp
26%
Away Win
34%
-8.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
54%
-11.6pp
58%
BTTS No
46%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avellino EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Juve Stabia EU Bookmakers 37%
+46% / +46% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -46% / -46%
1.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/1.00
-32% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
346 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avellino
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Juve Stabia
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
13.01.2024 Avellino Avellino 2-2 HT 2-1 Juve Stabia Juve Stabia İTC
29.11.2023 Avellino Avellino 1-0 HT 0-0 Juve Stabia Juve Stabia İTCK
11.09.2023 Juve Stabia Juve Stabia 1-0 HT 0-0 Avellino Avellino İTC
02.04.2023 Juve Stabia Juve Stabia 2-1 HT 1-0 Avellino Avellino İTC
30.11.2022 Avellino Avellino 0-0 HT 0-0 Juve Stabia Juve Stabia İTC
03.02.2022 Avellino Avellino 3-1 HT 1-1 Juve Stabia Juve Stabia İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avellino
3-1
AWAY Juve Stabia
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Avellino vs Juve Stabia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avellino saw off Juve Stabia 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Avellino as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Avellino had 38% of the ball to Juve Stabia's 62%, shots finished 9-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Avellino and 1.00 for Juve Stabia.

What was the final score of Avellino vs Juve Stabia?

Avellino 3-1 Juve Stabia in the Italy - Cup on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avellino vs Juve Stabia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avellino win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Avellino 50%, draw 24%, Juve Stabia 26%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avellino) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Avellino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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