Cesena 3-1 Padova Calcio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.61
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
58%
-3.2pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.1pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.6pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cesena EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 21%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.71/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/2.31
-22% / +63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
399 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cesena
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Padova Calcio
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
28.02.2021 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 0-0 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTC
02.11.2020 Cesena Cesena 0-2 HT 0-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
09.02.2020 Cesena Cesena 1-1 HT 0-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
25.09.2019 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-0 HT 1-0 Cesena Cesena İTC
09.05.2014 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 0-1 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena nan
06.12.2013 Cesena Cesena 0-1 HT 0-0 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio nan
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cesena
3-1
AWAY Padova Calcio
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Cesena vs Padova Calcio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cesena beat Padova Calcio 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cesena as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Cesena had 44% of the ball to Padova Calcio's 56%, shots finished 16-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Padova Calcio led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Cesena and 0.83 for Padova Calcio.

What was the final score of Cesena vs Padova Calcio?

Cesena 3-1 Padova Calcio in the Italy - Cup on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cesena vs Padova Calcio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cesena win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Cesena 55%, draw 23%, Padova Calcio 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cesena), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cesena) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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