Motor Lublin 1-1 Korona Kielce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.25
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
28%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.86
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.08
6+ Goals
12%
19.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 32% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.34
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
12.95
X/1
12%
4.99
X/2
7%
6.18
X/X
13%
4.1
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
14%
4.54
2/X
7%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
41%
+1.6pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.0pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-2.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.5pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -12%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
335 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
Crosses 19.5
Yellow Cards 2.2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motor Lublin
1-1
AWAY Korona Kielce
1.96 xG 1.12
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
283 Passes 331
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 20
28 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Motor Lublin vs Korona Kielce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motor Lublin and Korona Kielce shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Motor Lublin at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Motor Lublin had 47% of the ball to Korona Kielce's 53%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 1.96 to 1.12.

What was the final score of Motor Lublin vs Korona Kielce?

Motor Lublin 1-1 Korona Kielce in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motor Lublin vs Korona Kielce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motor Lublin win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Motor Lublin 42%, draw 30%, Korona Kielce 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Motor Lublin), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Motor Lublin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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