Sparta Prag vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sparta Prag v Lyon — Team-Based Signals
Sparta Prag vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 0-0
Sparta Prag
AVL
3-4
HT 2-1
Lyon
AVL
1-1
HT 0-0
Lyon
AVL
2-1
HT 0-0
Sparta Prag
AVL
5-0
HT 2-0
Sparta Prag
ŞMP
1-2
HT 1-1
Lyon
ŞMP
Sparta Prag 2-1 Lyon — Actual Match Statistics
Sparta Prag squeezed past Lyon 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Lyon at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 1.29 to 1.28.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sparta Prag and 2.83 for Lyon.
What was the final score of Sparta Prag vs Lyon?
Sparta Prag 2-1 Lyon in the Champions League on 04/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sparta Prag vs Lyon?
Before kick-off our model rated an Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Sparta Prag 28%, draw 28%, Lyon 45%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lyon) went the other way.