Deportivo Pereira 0-1 Once Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 4 Sep 2024

📅04/09/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
31%
2.83
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.38
Over 2.5
38%
2.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.29
No
58%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.9pp
31%
Draw
32%
-0.9pp
27%
Away Win
27%
-0.0pp
62%
Under 2.5
69%
-6.7pp
38%
Over 2.5
31%
+6.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
40%
+2.4pp
58%
BTTS No
60%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Pereira EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 31%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +16%
1.01/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.05
-5% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
306 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 78%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
17.1 Crosses 13.7
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Pereira
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Once Caldas
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.77 xG 0.86
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
255 Passes 301
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
10 Box Touches 10
15 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
23.02.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-2 HT 0-2 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira KOL
11.09.2023 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira 1-2 HT 0-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
13.08.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira KOL
25.03.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-1 HT 0-1 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira KOL
19.02.2023 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira 3-1 HT 2-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
04.09.2022 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira 1-1 HT 1-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Pereira
0-1
AWAY Once Caldas
0.45 xG 0.48
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 1
239 Passes 235
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 14
25 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Deportivo Pereira vs Once Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Pereira 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Deportivo Pereira at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Deportivo Pereira had 51% of the ball to Once Caldas's 49%, shots finished 9-13, expected goals 0.45 to 0.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Deportivo Pereira and 1.17 for Once Caldas.

What was the final score of Deportivo Pereira vs Once Caldas?

Deportivo Pereira 0-1 Once Caldas in the Colombia - Primera on 04/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Pereira vs Once Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Pereira win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Pereira 42%, draw 31%, Once Caldas 27%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Deportivo Pereira) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Pereira) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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