Greenville Triumph 2-3 Portland Hearts of Pine — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 4 Sep 2025

📅04/09/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
Over 2.5
43%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.73
No
55%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-1.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.8pp
55%
BTTS No
46%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Greenville Triumph EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Portland Hearts of Pine EU Bookmakers 27%
+2% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.34/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/0.97
-11% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +58%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
338 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
19.3 Crosses 16.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Greenville Triumph
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Portland Hearts of Pine
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.05 xG 1.88
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
294 Passes 264
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 30
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 4
17.07.2025 Portland Hearts of Pine 3-1 HT 0-0 Greenville Triumph Greenville Triumph USL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Greenville Triumph
2-3
AWAY Portland Hearts of Pine
1.34 xG 1.41
42% Ball Possession 58%
17 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 9
235 Passes 345
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Greenville Triumph vs Portland Hearts of Pine
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portland Hearts of Pine edged past Greenville Triumph 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Greenville Triumph at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Greenville Triumph had 42% of the ball to Portland Hearts of Pine's 58%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.34 to 1.41.

What was the final score of Greenville Triumph vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

Greenville Triumph 2-3 Portland Hearts of Pine in the USA - USL League 1 on 04/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Greenville Triumph vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

Before kick-off our model rated a Greenville Triumph win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Greenville Triumph 48%, draw 27%, Portland Hearts of Pine 25%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Greenville Triumph) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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