Sunderland 2-2 Leeds United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 4 Oct 2024

Sunderland
2-2 HT 1-1
Leeds United
📅04/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Sunderland vs Leeds United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.94
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
43%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.82
No
59%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.81
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.15
6+ Goals
8%
20.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 36% vs market 29.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.68
1/2
10%
29.0
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
12%
6.24
X/2
16%
4.82
X/X
13%
4.14
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
17%
3.25
2/X
6%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+1.1pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.1pp
43%
Away Win
41%
+2.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.9pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.8pp
41%
BTTS Yes
51%
-10.1pp
59%
BTTS No
49%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sunderland v Leeds United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sunderland EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Leeds United EU Bookmakers 45%
+2% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -20%
1.25/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.07
+18% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +5%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
266 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 75%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
14.7 Crosses 19.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1

Sunderland vs Leeds United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sunderland
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Leeds United
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.73 xG 0.60
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 6
254 Passes 398
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.04.2024 Leeds United Leeds United 0-0 HT 0-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
12.12.2023 Sunderland Sunderland 1-0 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
07.04.2018 Leeds United Leeds United 1-1 HT 0-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
19.08.2017 Sunderland Sunderland 0-2 HT 0-1 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
04.01.2015 Sunderland Sunderland 1-0 HT 1-0 Leeds United Leeds United FAK
26.12.2006 Sunderland Sunderland 2-0 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL

Sunderland 2-2 Leeds United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sunderland
2-2
AWAY Leeds United
1.87 xG 2.42
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 1
376 Passes 403
88% Pass Accuracy 87%
31 Box Touches 34
19 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sunderland vs Leeds United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sunderland and Leeds United shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Leeds United at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sunderland had 49% of the ball to Leeds United's 51%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.87 to 2.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sunderland had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sunderland and 0.50 for Leeds United.

What was the final score of Sunderland vs Leeds United?

Sunderland 2-2 Leeds United in the England - Championship on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sunderland vs Leeds United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leeds United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sunderland 32%, draw 26%, Leeds United 43%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Leeds United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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