Augsburg 2-1 Mönchengladbach — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 4 Oct 2024

Augsburg
2-1 HT 1-0
Mönchengladbach
📅04/10/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Augsburg vs Mönchengladbach Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
30%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.49
No
44%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.73
2-3 Goals
37%
1.92
4-5 Goals
28%
2.83
6+ Goals
13%
7.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.22
1/2
6%
26.5
1/X
9%
12.3
X/1
14%
5.55
X/2
14%
6.23
X/X
7%
5.39
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
24.0
2/2
10%
3.8
2/X
9%
12.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 10% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
40%
+4.8pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.8pp
30%
Away Win
34%
-4.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
63%
-7.3pp
44%
BTTS No
37%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Augsburg v Mönchengladbach — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Mönchengladbach EU Bookmakers 38%
+4% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -11%
1.54/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.71
+5% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
339 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 79%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
21.3 Crosses 15.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.8

Augsburg vs Mönchengladbach Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Mönchengladbach
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.17 xG 1.74
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
277 Passes 467
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 29
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.01.2024 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 1-2 HT 1-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
19.08.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 4-4 HT 3-3 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
27.05.2023 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 2-0 HT 2-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
25.01.2023 Augsburg Augsburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
12.02.2022 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 3-2 HT 1-0 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
18.09.2021 Augsburg Augsburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1

Augsburg 2-1 Mönchengladbach — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
2-1
AWAY Mönchengladbach
1.29 xG 0.50
34% Ball Possession 66%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
215 Passes 497
71% Pass Accuracy 82%
29 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs Mönchengladbach
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Augsburg nicked a narrow win over Mönchengladbach 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Augsburg as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Augsburg had 34% of the ball to Mönchengladbach's 66%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.29 to 0.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Augsburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Augsburg and 1.67 for Mönchengladbach.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs Mönchengladbach?

Augsburg 2-1 Mönchengladbach in the Germany - Bundesliga on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Mönchengladbach?

Before kick-off our model rated a Augsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 45%, draw 25%, Mönchengladbach 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Augsburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Augsburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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