Borussia Dortmund II 2-1 Dynamo Dresden — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.87
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
45%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.15
Over 2.5
54%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.2
2-3 Goals
37%
1.86
4-5 Goals
24%
3.02
6+ Goals
13%
9.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
6.71
1/2
9%
21.85
1/X
7%
14.6
X/1
8%
9.35
X/2
14%
4.18
X/X
12%
5.56
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.19
2/X
5%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
22%
+7.4pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.0pp
45%
Away Win
53%
-8.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.0pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund II EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Dynamo Dresden EU Bookmakers 57%
-11% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.09/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/0.98
-7% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +27%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
314 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 389 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.0 Crosses 10.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund II
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Dynamo Dresden
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
402 Passes 249
77% Pass Accuracy 66%
4 Yellow Cards 1
28.01.2024 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 1-2 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
26.08.2023 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 0-2 HT 0-1 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden AL3
12.03.2023 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 1-3 HT 0-3 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden AL3
03.09.2022 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 3-0 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
16.05.2015 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 2-3 HT 1-2 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden AL3
21.11.2014 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 1-1 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund II
2-1
AWAY Dynamo Dresden
27% Ball Possession 73%
10 Total Shots 23
4 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 13
169 Passes 578
69% Pass Accuracy 89%
9 Crosses 47
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund II vs Dynamo Dresden
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund II nicked a narrow win over Dynamo Dresden 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Dynamo Dresden at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund II had 27% of the ball to Dynamo Dresden's 73%, shots finished 10-23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dynamo Dresden led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Borussia Dortmund II and 2.17 for Dynamo Dresden.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund II vs Dynamo Dresden?

Borussia Dortmund II 2-1 Dynamo Dresden in the Germany - 3rd Division on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund II vs Dynamo Dresden?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dynamo Dresden win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund II 30%, draw 25%, Dynamo Dresden 45%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Dynamo Dresden) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dynamo Dresden) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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