Dynamo Dresden 1-2 Borussia Dortmund II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.45
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.28
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
24%
2.92
6+ Goals
10%
8.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.28 — our 28% vs market 18.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.72
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
9%
17.75
X/1
20%
3.62
X/2
9%
13.75
X/X
8%
6.51
2/1
8%
21.3
2/2
6%
10.55
2/X
6%
18.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
65%
-9.4pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.4pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.6pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dynamo Dresden EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II EU Bookmakers 18%
+5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
1.94/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.66
+3% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
382 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dynamo Dresden
4W-1D-0L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II
2.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
249 Passes 402
66% Pass Accuracy 77%
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.08.2023 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 0-2 HT 0-1 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden AL3
12.03.2023 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 1-3 HT 0-3 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden AL3
03.09.2022 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 3-0 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
16.05.2015 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 2-3 HT 1-2 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden AL3
21.11.2014 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 1-1 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dynamo Dresden
1-2
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 5
1 Shots on Target 4
13 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Dynamo Dresden vs Borussia Dortmund II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund II edged past Dynamo Dresden 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Dynamo Dresden at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Dynamo Dresden had 64% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund II's 36%, shots finished 18-5.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Dynamo Dresden had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.40 goals for Dynamo Dresden and 0.80 for Borussia Dortmund II.

What was the final score of Dynamo Dresden vs Borussia Dortmund II?

Dynamo Dresden 1-2 Borussia Dortmund II in the Germany - 3rd Division on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dynamo Dresden vs Borussia Dortmund II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dynamo Dresden win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Dynamo Dresden 55%, draw 23%, Borussia Dortmund II 22%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Dynamo Dresden) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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