RFC Liege 1-1 Lommel United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - 1st Division, 4 Oct 2024

RFC Liege
1-1 HT 1-1
Lommel United
📅04/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Belgium - 1st Division – 2024/2025

RFC Liege vs Lommel United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.84
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
41%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
3.22
6+ Goals
9%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.78 — our 26% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
4%
1/X
11%
X/1
6%
X/2
20%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
32%
-2.8pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.0pp
41%
Away Win
42%
-1.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.1pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

RFC Liege v Lommel United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RFC Liege EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Lommel United EU Bookmakers 46%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +9%
1.97/1.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.03
+12% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -4%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
308 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 80%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
21.8 Crosses 15.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

RFC Liege vs Lommel United Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RFC Liege
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Lommel United
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.12 xG 1.56
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
256 Passes 482
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
02.03.2024 Lommel United Lommel United 4-1 HT 1-0 RFC Liege RFC Liege BEL2
01.10.2023 RFC Liege RFC Liege 2-1 HT 0-1 Lommel United Lommel United BEL2

RFC Liege 1-1 Lommel United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RFC Liege
1-1
AWAY Lommel United
0.92 xG 1.90
23% Ball Possession 77%
9 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 7
128 Passes 642
61% Pass Accuracy 90%
16 Box Touches 35
8 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH RFC Liege vs Lommel United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RFC Liege and Lommel United shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Lommel United at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, RFC Liege had 23% of the ball to Lommel United's 77%, shots finished 9-19, expected goals 0.92 to 1.90.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for RFC Liege and 2.50 for Lommel United.

What was the final score of RFC Liege vs Lommel United?

RFC Liege 1-1 Lommel United in the Belgium - 1st Division on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RFC Liege vs Lommel United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lommel United win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split RFC Liege 29%, draw 30%, Lommel United 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lommel United), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lommel United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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