Arda Kardzhali 1-1 PFC Beroe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.8
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.44
Over 2.5
38%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.44
No
60%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
11%
X/1
23%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
51%
-8.2pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.5pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+5.8pp
62%
Under 2.5
66%
-3.7pp
38%
Over 2.5
34%
+3.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
37%
+3.2pp
60%
BTTS No
63%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY PFC Beroe EU Bookmakers 23%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.71/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.15
+66% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
338 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arda Kardzhali
1W-0D-1L
AWAY PFC Beroe
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.11.2023 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 1-0 HT 0-0 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
24.07.2023 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe 1-0 HT 1-0 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arda Kardzhali
1-1
AWAY PFC Beroe
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Arda Kardzhali vs PFC Beroe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arda Kardzhali and PFC Beroe shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Arda Kardzhali at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, Arda Kardzhali had 51% of the ball to PFC Beroe's 49%, shots finished 8-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Arda Kardzhali and 0.50 for PFC Beroe.

What was the final score of Arda Kardzhali vs PFC Beroe?

Arda Kardzhali 1-1 PFC Beroe in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arda Kardzhali vs PFC Beroe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arda Kardzhali win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Arda Kardzhali 43%, draw 31%, PFC Beroe 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Arda Kardzhali), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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