Slavia Sofia 1-0 Cherno More Varna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.75
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
50%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.6
Over 2.5
39%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.03
No
62%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
22%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
23%
-0.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.2pp
50%
Away Win
50%
+0.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.4pp
38%
BTTS Yes
45%
-7.5pp
62%
BTTS No
55%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slavia Sofia EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 54%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +38% / +38%
0.67/2.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.40/0.40
-26% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +55% / +103%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
221 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slavia Sofia
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Cherno More Varna
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.12.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 3-0 HT 1-0 Slavia Sofia Slavia Sofia BUL1
12.08.2023 Slavia Sofia Slavia Sofia 1-5 HT 1-2 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slavia Sofia
1-0
AWAY Cherno More Varna
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 6
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Slavia Sofia squeezed past Cherno More Varna 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Cherno More Varna at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (62%) came in.

On the day, Slavia Sofia had 49% of the ball to Cherno More Varna's 51%, shots finished 9-6.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Cherno More Varna led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Slavia Sofia and 4.00 for Cherno More Varna.

What was the final score of Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?

Slavia Sofia 1-0 Cherno More Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Slavia Sofia 23%, draw 27%, Cherno More Varna 50%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Cherno More Varna) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
4 Oct 2024
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