Osaka 1-0 Grulla Morioka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J3 League, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
55%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
1.8
Over
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
42%
4-5
25%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
6%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Osaka win — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
60%
-5.1pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.1pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osaka EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Grulla Morioka EU Bookmakers 20%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -6%
2.75/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/2.00
+61% / +46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -20%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
522 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 9.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osaka
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Grulla Morioka
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
14.04.2024 Grulla Morioka Grulla Morioka 0-1 HT 0-0 Osaka Osaka JAP3
09.09.2023 Grulla Morioka Grulla Morioka 0-3 HT 0-1 Osaka Osaka JAP3
18.03.2023 Osaka Osaka 0-3 HT 0-0 Grulla Morioka Grulla Morioka JAP3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osaka
1-0
AWAY Grulla Morioka
31% Ball Possession 69%
13 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 1
141 Passes 381
63% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Osaka vs Grulla Morioka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osaka squeezed past Grulla Morioka 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Osaka as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Osaka had 31% of the ball to Grulla Morioka's 69%, shots finished 13-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Osaka had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Osaka and 1.00 for Grulla Morioka.

What was the final score of Osaka vs Grulla Morioka?

Osaka 1-0 Grulla Morioka in the Japan - J3 League on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osaka vs Grulla Morioka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Osaka 55%, draw 24%, Grulla Morioka 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Osaka), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Osaka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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