Linfield FC 1-3 Glentoran FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.64
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.96
No
59%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.01
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.88
6+ Goals
8%
17.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 30% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
2.11
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.5
X/1
16%
3.77
X/2
11%
10.45
X/X
10%
4.74
2/1
4%
25.5
2/2
5%
8.7
2/X
8%
16.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
57%
-1.6pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.9pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.8pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.8pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Linfield FC EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Glentoran FC EU Bookmakers 21%
+11% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -18%
1.62/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.55/1.86
-14% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
359 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Linfield FC
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Glentoran FC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.04.2024 Glentoran FC Glentoran FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Linfield FC Linfield FC KİRL
29.03.2024 Glentoran FC Glentoran FC 1-3 HT 0-1 Linfield FC Linfield FC KİRK
26.12.2023 Linfield FC Linfield FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Glentoran FC Glentoran FC KİRL
01.12.2023 Glentoran FC Glentoran FC 4-0 HT 3-0 Linfield FC Linfield FC KİRL
07.11.2023 Glentoran FC Glentoran FC 1-2 HT 0-1 Linfield FC Linfield FC KILK
06.10.2023 Linfield FC Linfield FC 2-0 HT 2-0 Glentoran FC Glentoran FC KİRL
POST-MATCH Linfield FC vs Glentoran FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Glentoran FC saw off Linfield FC 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Linfield FC at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Linfield FC had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Linfield FC and 1.00 for Glentoran FC.

What was the final score of Linfield FC vs Glentoran FC?

Linfield FC 1-3 Glentoran FC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Linfield FC vs Glentoran FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Linfield FC win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Linfield FC 56%, draw 22%, Glentoran FC 22%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Linfield FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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