Ruch Chorzow 1-0 Kotwica Kolobrzeg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.0
Over 2.5
55%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.7
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.28
6+ Goals
12%
11.55
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.28 — our 26% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
3%
1/X
8%
X/1
24%
X/2
10%
X/X
5%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Ruch Chorzow win — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
57%
-3.5pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.1pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+5.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.8pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ruch Chorzow EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Kotwica Kolobrzeg EU Bookmakers 22%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +29% / +29%
0.88/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.35
-49% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +18%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
396 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ruch Chorzow
1-0
AWAY Kotwica Kolobrzeg
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 2
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ruch Chorzow vs Kotwica Kolobrzeg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ruch Chorzow nicked a narrow win over Kotwica Kolobrzeg 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ruch Chorzow as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ruch Chorzow had 54% of the ball to Kotwica Kolobrzeg's 46%, shots finished 12-4.

What was the final score of Ruch Chorzow vs Kotwica Kolobrzeg?

Ruch Chorzow 1-0 Kotwica Kolobrzeg in the Poland - 1st Division on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ruch Chorzow vs Kotwica Kolobrzeg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ruch Chorzow win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Ruch Chorzow 54%, draw 22%, Kotwica Kolobrzeg 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ruch Chorzow) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ruch Chorzow) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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