St. Gallen 1-2 Thun — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 4 Oct 2025

St. Gallen
1-2 HT 1-2
Thun
📅04/10/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Switzerland - Super League – 2025/2026

St. Gallen vs Thun Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.23
Over 2.5
58%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.5
No
40%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.65
2-3 Goals
36%
1.95
4-5 Goals
28%
2.92
6+ Goals
13%
8.27
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.08
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
27.5
1/X
6%
12.1
X/1
12%
5.51
X/2
8%
6.78
X/X
10%
5.38
2/1
6%
23.1
2/2
19%
4.25
2/X
8%
12.45
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.5 — our 6% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.5pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+0.7pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.5pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.5pp
60%
BTTS Yes
62%
-2.8pp
40%
BTTS No
38%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

St. Gallen v Thun — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Gallen EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Thun EU Bookmakers 36%
+3% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +10%
1.73/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/1.39
+10% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / +23%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
307 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 74%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
18.6 Crosses 18.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1

St. Gallen vs Thun Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Gallen
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Thun
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.78 xG 1.01
51% Ball Possession 49%
19 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
286 Passes 279
71% Pass Accuracy 69%
28 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.07.2020 Thun Thun 2-1 HT 0-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
28.06.2020 St. Gallen St. Gallen 3-2 HT 3-0 Thun Thun İSV
08.12.2019 Thun Thun 1-4 HT 0-2 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
28.09.2019 St. Gallen St. Gallen 4-0 HT 2-0 Thun Thun İSV
06.07.2019 Thun Thun 1-5 HT 1-1 St. Gallen St. Gallen HAZ
14.04.2019 Thun Thun 0-0 HT 0-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV

St. Gallen 1-2 Thun — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Gallen
1-2
AWAY Thun
0.96 xG 1.99
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 2
252 Passes 191
69% Pass Accuracy 61%
31 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH St. Gallen vs Thun
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Thun edged past St. Gallen 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was St. Gallen at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, St. Gallen had 54% of the ball to Thun's 46%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 0.96 to 1.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Gallen had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for St. Gallen and 1.00 for Thun.

What was the final score of St. Gallen vs Thun?

St. Gallen 1-2 Thun in the Switzerland - Super League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Gallen vs Thun?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Gallen win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split St. Gallen 43%, draw 24%, Thun 33%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (St. Gallen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Gallen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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