Fulham 2-1 Brentford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 4 Nov 2024

📅04/11/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.1
Over 2.5
57%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.61
No
42%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.07
2-3 Goals
37%
1.85
4-5 Goals
28%
3.08
6+ Goals
13%
9.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.62
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
12%
4.6
X/2
10%
7.48
X/X
11%
5.24
2/1 EV+ ✓
8%
22.7
2/2
13%
5.15
2/X
8%
13.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-2.7pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+2.1pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-1.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+1.1pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.2pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fulham EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Brentford EU Bookmakers 31%
+13% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +8%
1.72/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.24
+26% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
352 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 74%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
20.4 Crosses 19.1
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fulham
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Brentford
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.37 xG 2.02
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
384 Passes 303
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
04.05.2024 Brentford Brentford 0-0 HT 0-0 Fulham Fulham İNP
19.08.2023 Fulham Fulham 0-3 HT 0-1 Brentford Brentford İNP
23.07.2023 Fulham Fulham 3-2 HT 2-1 Brentford Brentford HAZPL
06.03.2023 Brentford Brentford 3-2 HT 1-1 Fulham Fulham İNP
20.08.2022 Fulham Fulham 3-2 HT 2-1 Brentford Brentford İNP
01.10.2020 Brentford Brentford 3-0 HT 1-0 Fulham Fulham İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fulham
2-1
AWAY Brentford
1.35 xG 0.62
68% Ball Possession 32%
26 Total Shots 5
12 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 3
565 Passes 227
88% Pass Accuracy 71%
49 Box Touches 9
43 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fulham vs Brentford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fulham squeezed past Brentford 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fulham as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Fulham had 68% of the ball to Brentford's 32%, shots finished 26-5, expected goals 1.35 to 0.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brentford led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fulham and 2.17 for Brentford.

What was the final score of Fulham vs Brentford?

Fulham 2-1 Brentford in the England - Premier League on 04/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fulham vs Brentford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fulham win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Fulham 45%, draw 25%, Brentford 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fulham), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fulham) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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