Örgryte 2-1 Östersunds FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Superettan, 4 Nov 2024

📅04/11/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.84
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
32%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
1.91
Over Pick
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.48
2-3
40%
1.8
4-5
22%
3.42
6+
11%
12.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.48
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
17%
6.45
X/2
12%
4.95
X/X
11%
4.69
2/1
7%
32.0
2/2
14%
3.09
2/X
8%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 32.0 — our 7% vs market 1.2%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
32%
+9.9pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
33%
Away Win
41%
-8.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.3pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Örgryte EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Östersunds FK EU Bookmakers 45%
+1% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -27% / -31%
1.70/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.75
+25% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / -24%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
234 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 510 · 86%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Örgryte
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Östersunds FK
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.04.2024 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK 1-1 HT 0-0 Örgryte Örgryte İSÇ2
20.08.2023 Örgryte Örgryte 2-2 HT 2-0 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK İSÇ2
11.06.2023 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK 2-1 HT 1-0 Örgryte Örgryte İSÇ2
17.09.2022 Örgryte Örgryte 0-1 HT 0-0 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK İSÇ2
24.05.2022 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK 0-0 HT 0-0 Örgryte Örgryte İSÇ2
05.10.2013 Östersunds FK Östersunds FK 2-1 HT 1-1 Örgryte Örgryte İSÇ2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Örgryte
2-1
AWAY Östersunds FK
51% Ball Possession 49%
6 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Örgryte vs Östersunds FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Örgryte edged past Östersunds FK 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Örgryte as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Örgryte had 51% of the ball to Östersunds FK's 49%, shots finished 6-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Östersunds FK led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Örgryte and 1.33 for Östersunds FK.

What was the final score of Örgryte vs Östersunds FK?

Örgryte 2-1 Östersunds FK in the Sweden - Superettan on 04/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Örgryte vs Östersunds FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Örgryte win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Örgryte 42%, draw 26%, Östersunds FK 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Örgryte), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Örgryte) ✓ Over 2.5
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