Utrecht II 4-3 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 4 Nov 2024

📅04/11/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.33
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
43%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.56
No
52%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.05
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.09
6+ Goals
10%
9.99
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.05 — our 28% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.41
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
7%
12.45
X/1
10%
5.54
X/2
15%
5.97
X/X
13%
4.99
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
22%
3.79
2/X
6%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
39%
-7.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
43%
Away Win
34%
+8.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.7pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht II EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 38%
-18% / -37% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +16%
1.06/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.51
-47% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +1%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
342 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 76%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
13.9 Crosses 12.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht II
2W-1D-3L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.33 xG 1.02
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
368 Passes 363
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.01.2024 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-0 HT 1-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
30.10.2023 Utrecht II Utrecht II 1-1 HT 1-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
17.03.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-0 HT 0-0 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
14.11.2022 Utrecht II Utrecht II 3-0 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
08.04.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-4 HT 2-2 Utrecht II Utrecht II HOL2
09.08.2021 Utrecht II Utrecht II 0-1 HT 0-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht II
4-3
AWAY MVV Maastricht
2.52 xG 1.08
57% Ball Possession 43%
23 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 4
12 Corners 4
378 Passes 259
79% Pass Accuracy 71%
40 Box Touches 17
32 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Utrecht II vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht II edged past MVV Maastricht 4-3. Half-time: 2-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was MVV Maastricht at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Utrecht II had 57% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 43%, shots finished 23-6, expected goals 2.52 to 1.08 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Utrecht II's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, MVV Maastricht led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Utrecht II and 1.33 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of Utrecht II vs MVV Maastricht?

Utrecht II 4-3 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 04/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht II vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated an MVV Maastricht win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Utrecht II 32%, draw 25%, MVV Maastricht 43%. The final score 4-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (MVV Maastricht) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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