Academica 5-1 Lusitania — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 4 Nov 2024

📅04/11/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.72
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
54%
-10.0pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.7pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+6.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.9pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Academica EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Lusitania EU Bookmakers 24%
-33% / -33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.23/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.41/1.00
-17% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -60% / +32%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
369 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Academica
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Lusitania
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 0
05.08.2024 Lusitania Lusitania 3-3 HT 1-0 Academica Academica POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Academica
5-1
AWAY Lusitania
44% Ball Possession 56%
20 Total Shots 13
10 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Academica vs Lusitania
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Academica ran out comfortable winners over Lusitania 5-1. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Academica as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Academica had 44% of the ball to Lusitania's 56%, shots finished 20-13.

What was the final score of Academica vs Lusitania?

Academica 5-1 Lusitania in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 04/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Academica vs Lusitania?

Before kick-off our model rated a Academica win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Academica 44%, draw 28%, Lusitania 28%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Academica) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Academica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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