Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 4 Dec 2024

Athletic Bilbao
2-1 HT 0-0
Real Madrid
📅04/12/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.99
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
40%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.95
Over 2.5
51%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.62
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
20%
3.39
6+ Goals
13%
12.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
5.25
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
9%
14.1
X/1
6%
7.7
X/2
15%
5.63
X/X
6%
5.08
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
18%
3.33
2/X
8%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
30%
+7.5pp
23%
Draw
28%
-4.9pp
40%
Away Win
42%
-2.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.6pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Athletic Bilbao v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 46%
-2% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +13%
1.06/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.33
-38% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -5%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
307 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 401 · 82%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
22.5 Crosses 12.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Real Madrid
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.28 xG 1.12
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
361 Passes 530
84% Pass Accuracy 89%
25 Box Touches 22
26 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
31.03.2024 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-0 HT 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
12.08.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-2 HT 0-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
04.06.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
22.01.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-2 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
03.02.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-0 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İSPK
16.01.2022 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-0 HT 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İSSK

Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao
2-1
AWAY Real Madrid
1.81 xG 1.82
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
272 Passes 537
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
21 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao squeezed past Real Madrid 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 23% / 40%) promised a tight game; Athletic Bilbao found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 37% of the ball to Real Madrid's 63%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 1.81 to 1.82.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 1.50 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid?

Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 04/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 37%, draw 23%, Real Madrid 40%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Real Madrid) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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