Real Madrid 2-0 Athletic Bilbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 31 Mar 2024

Real Madrid
2-0 HT 1-0
Athletic Bilbao
📅31/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
20%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.77
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.23
6+ Goals
11%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.77 — our 27% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.99
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.75
X/1
18%
3.82
X/2
6%
10.85
X/X
13%
5.61
2/1
8%
22.3
2/2
9%
8.39
2/X
6%
16.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
59%
-5.3pp
26%
Draw
23%
+3.1pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.2pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Real Madrid v Athletic Bilbao — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 21%
+5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -14%
2.08/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.47
+19% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
370 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 77%
34.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
18.3 Crosses 20.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Madrid
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.12 xG 1.40
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
534 Passes 363
89% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 28
10 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.08.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-2 HT 0-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
04.06.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-1 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
22.01.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-2 HT 0-1 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
03.02.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-0 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İSPK
16.01.2022 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-0 HT 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İSSK
22.12.2021 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-2 HT 1-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1

Real Madrid 2-0 Athletic Bilbao — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Madrid
2-0
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
1.12 xG 0.27
59% Ball Possession 41%
9 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
579 Passes 366
89% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 17
10 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid got the better of Athletic Bilbao 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Real Madrid had 59% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 41%, shots finished 9-7, expected goals 1.12 to 0.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Real Madrid and 0.50 for Athletic Bilbao.

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao?

Real Madrid 2-0 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Primera Liga on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 54%, draw 26%, Athletic Bilbao 20%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Under 2.5
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