Corinthians 3-0 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 4 Dec 2024

📅04/12/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
23%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.03
2-3 Goals
38%
1.87
4-5 Goals
21%
3.15
6+ Goals
12%
10.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.03 — our 29% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.16
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.7
X/1
11%
4.09
X/2
8%
9.8
X/X
13%
5.6
2/1
9%
22.1
2/2
10%
7.23
2/X
7%
15.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-6.1pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.3pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+2.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-9.1pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Corinthians EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 24%
+8% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -2%
1.57/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.36
+28% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -15%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
353 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 76%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
22.8 Crosses 16.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Corinthians
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Bahia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.99 xG 1.52
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
401 Passes 344
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.07.2024 Bahia Bahia 0-1 HT 0-1 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
25.11.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 1-5 HT 0-3 Bahia Bahia BR1
23.07.2023 Bahia Bahia 0-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
06.10.2021 Corinthians Corinthians 3-1 HT 1-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
20.06.2021 Bahia Bahia 0-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
29.01.2021 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 2-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Corinthians
3-0
AWAY Bahia
1.78 xG 0.40
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
465 Passes 420
91% Pass Accuracy 89%
24 Box Touches 16
10 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Corinthians vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Corinthians ran out comfortable winners over Bahia 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Corinthians as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Corinthians had 52% of the ball to Bahia's 48%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 1.78 to 0.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Corinthians and 1.33 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Corinthians vs Bahia?

Corinthians 3-0 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 04/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Corinthians vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Corinthians win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Corinthians 50%, draw 27%, Bahia 24%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Corinthians), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Corinthians) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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