Bahia 0-1 Corinthians — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 21 Jul 2024

Bahia
0-1 HT 0-1
Corinthians
📅21/07/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Bahia vs Corinthians Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.81
No
57%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.49
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
17%
3.42
6+ Goals
10%
12.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 30% vs market 23.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.17
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.75
X/1
15%
3.96
X/2
10%
9.6
X/X
9%
5.13
2/1
8%
23.15
2/2
11%
7.45
2/X
8%
15.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-7.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.5pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+7.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-8.6pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Corinthians — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Corinthians EU Bookmakers 23%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.60/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.34
-5% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
365 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
21.9 Crosses 16.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4

Bahia vs Corinthians Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Corinthians
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.73 xG 1.23
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
333 Passes 390
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 1-5 HT 0-3 Bahia Bahia BR1
23.07.2023 Bahia Bahia 0-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
06.10.2021 Corinthians Corinthians 3-1 HT 1-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
20.06.2021 Bahia Bahia 0-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
29.01.2021 Bahia Bahia 2-1 HT 2-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
17.09.2020 Corinthians Corinthians 3-2 HT 2-1 Bahia Bahia BR1

Bahia 0-1 Corinthians — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
0-1
AWAY Corinthians
1.37 xG 0.31
65% Ball Possession 35%
17 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
542 Passes 265
88% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Corinthians
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Corinthians nicked a narrow win over Bahia 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Bahia at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Bahia had 65% of the ball to Corinthians's 35%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 1.37 to 0.31 — the balance of chances actually favoured Bahia.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Bahia and 1.33 for Corinthians.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Corinthians?

Bahia 0-1 Corinthians in the Brazil - Serie A on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Corinthians?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Bahia 49%, draw 25%, Corinthians 27%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Bahia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bahia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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