Palmeiras 2-0 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 21 Jul 2024

Palmeiras
2-0 HT 1-0
Cruzeiro
📅21/07/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.72
Draw
32%
3.45
Away
21%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.9
No
59%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.04
2-3 Goals
35%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.83
6+ Goals
11%
16.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 33% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.25
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.65
X/1
17%
3.94
X/2
6%
9.48
X/X
21%
4.65
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
10%
7.67
2/X
5%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-6.8pp
32%
Draw
26%
+5.9pp
21%
Away Win
20%
+0.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.5pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Palmeiras v Cruzeiro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 23%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +1%
1.67/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.23
-3% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
353 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
24.3 Crosses 14.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Cruzeiro
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.03 xG 0.82
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
326 Passes 342
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.12.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
15.08.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
08.12.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-2 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
15.09.2019 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
30.09.2018 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-1 HT 2-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
27.09.2018 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BRK

Palmeiras 2-0 Cruzeiro — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
2-0
AWAY Cruzeiro
1.32 xG 0.55
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
209 Passes 329
69% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 10
21 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras got the better of Cruzeiro 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Palmeiras had 43% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 57%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 1.32 to 0.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Palmeiras and 0.50 for Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?

Palmeiras 2-0 Cruzeiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 47%, draw 32%, Cruzeiro 21%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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