Atletico Mineiro 2-0 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 21 Jul 2024

Atletico Mineiro
2-0 HT 2-0
Vasco da Gama
📅21/07/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✓
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Atletico Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.72
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.04
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.84
6+ Goals
12%
16.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 29% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.22
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.55
X/1
20%
3.82
X/2
10%
9.3
X/X
12%
4.84
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
12%
7.63
2/X
6%
16.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-6.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.4pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+6.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.5pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Mineiro v Vasco da Gama — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 24%
-3% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -10%
1.53/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.38
+7% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -9%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
386 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 77%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
20.9 Crosses 19.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6

Atletico Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.60 xG 1.50
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
453 Passes 246
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 18
26 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
20.08.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
16.04.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-2 HT 1-2 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
24.01.2021 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 3-2 HT 2-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
05.10.2020 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 4-1 HT 4-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
03.10.2019 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-2 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
02.05.2019 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-2 HT 0-0 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1

Atletico Mineiro 2-0 Vasco da Gama — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
2-0
AWAY Vasco da Gama
2.19 xG 0.64
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 1
448 Passes 356
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 12
13 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro beat Vasco da Gama 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Atletico Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 54% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 46%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 2.19 to 0.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vasco da Gama led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 1.67 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama?

Atletico Mineiro 2-0 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 21/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 48%, draw 24%, Vasco da Gama 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Mineiro), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✓ BTTS No
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