Ajax 2-2 Utrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 4 Dec 2024

Ajax
2-2 HT 2-1
Utrecht
📅04/12/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Ajax vs Utrecht Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.37
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
22%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under
43%
2.43
Over Pick
57%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1
23%
5.17
2-3
37%
1.99
4-5
26%
2.77
6+
14%
7.12
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.79
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
21.25
X/1
16%
4.19
X/2
7%
17.85
X/X
7%
8.3
2/1 ✗
11%
24.3
2/2
10%
13.05
2/X
6%
21.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.3 — our 11% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 57% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
68%
-12.3pp
22%
Draw
19%
+3.3pp
22%
Away Win
13%
+9.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.1pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ajax v Utrecht — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Utrecht EU Bookmakers 16%
-3% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +10%
2.83/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/2.30
+20% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +76% / -3%
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
456 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
49.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
23.7 Crosses 14.3
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.5

Ajax vs Utrecht Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Utrecht
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.83 xG 0.68
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
520 Passes 253
85% Pass Accuracy 72%
37 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.03.2024 Ajax Ajax 2-0 HT 1-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
22.10.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 4-3 HT 1-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
21.05.2023 Ajax Ajax 3-1 HT 1-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
28.08.2022 Utrecht Utrecht 0-2 HT 0-2 Ajax Ajax HOL
16.01.2022 Utrecht Utrecht 0-3 HT 0-3 Ajax Ajax HOL
03.10.2021 Ajax Ajax 0-1 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL

Ajax 2-2 Utrecht — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
2-2
AWAY Utrecht
0.68 xG 1.23
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
547 Passes 324
88% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 22
POST-MATCH Ajax vs Utrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax and Utrecht couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Ajax carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ajax had 61% of the ball to Utrecht's 39%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 0.68 to 1.23.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Ajax and 1.00 for Utrecht.

What was the final score of Ajax vs Utrecht?

Ajax 2-2 Utrecht in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 04/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs Utrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Ajax 56%, draw 22%, Utrecht 22%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Ajax) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5
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