Ajax 2-0 Utrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 3 Mar 2024

Ajax
2-0 HT 1-0
Utrecht
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Ajax vs Utrecht Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
25%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.0
Over 2.5
43%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.66
No
52%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.77
2-3 Goals
36%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.23
6+ Goals
9%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.77 — our 32% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.7
1/2
5%
33.0
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
10%
4.67
X/2
9%
7.17
X/X
17%
5.26
2/1
8%
22.7
2/2
10%
4.9
2/X
7%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-1.5pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.6pp
25%
Away Win
28%
-3.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
46%
+10.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
54%
-10.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.1pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ajax v Utrecht — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Utrecht EU Bookmakers 32%
+5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +5%
1.77/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.53
+8% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
361 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 74%
33.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
31.9 Crosses 18.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Ajax vs Utrecht Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Utrecht
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.10 xG 0.76
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
513 Passes 219
85% Pass Accuracy 68%
41 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.10.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 4-3 HT 1-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
21.05.2023 Ajax Ajax 3-1 HT 1-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
28.08.2022 Utrecht Utrecht 0-2 HT 0-2 Ajax Ajax HOL
16.01.2022 Utrecht Utrecht 0-3 HT 0-3 Ajax Ajax HOL
03.10.2021 Ajax Ajax 0-1 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
22.04.2021 Ajax Ajax 1-1 HT 0-1 Utrecht Utrecht HOL

Ajax 2-0 Utrecht — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
2-0
AWAY Utrecht
1.08 xG 0.50
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 3
570 Passes 350
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Box Touches 16
12 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ajax vs Utrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax beat Utrecht 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Ajax had 60% of the ball to Utrecht's 40%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.08 to 0.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Ajax and 1.17 for Utrecht.

What was the final score of Ajax vs Utrecht?

Ajax 2-0 Utrecht in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs Utrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Ajax 45%, draw 30%, Utrecht 25%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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